How To Calculate Odds In Soccer Betting
The correct approach is to calculate average odds by forming the harmonic mean! The harmonic mean is defined as the reciprocal of the arithmetic mean of the reciprocals of x 1, x 2, x n (the odds). The Football Odds Calculator is a free tool to estimate fair odds for soccer bets. Method of calculation: Mathematical football predictions are based on 1x2 odds. We analyse 1x2 closing odds from the past and can predict expected and fair odds for any real or virtual soccer game.
17/07/2017 21:53Long-term profits are very closely related to the margin applied on the soccer betting odds. The lower the margins are, the more they are in favour of the bettor and the larger they are, it gives bigger profit. Below is an explanation on how to calculate margins on 1X2 odds.
The soccer betting odds’ margin is actually the price that a bookmaker is charging and the Margin Calculator below gives an idea of how this works and makes it easier for bettors to calculate the margin on a bet.
Normally, we will take a match with three possibilities of ending as we need an example of 1X2. For that purpose, we will take the match between Hull City and Leicester City. This match was played at the KCOM Stadium. The opening price for Hull City was 3.41 and for Leicester City it was 2.39. The draw was set to 3.19
Outcome Odds
Hull City to win 3.41
Leicester City to win 2.39
Draw 3.19
There are two steps to calculate the margins for 1X2 odds:
- The odds for all three possible outcomes shall be converted into decimal probability;
- Solve the equation:
Margin = (1/Home Odds) + (1/Away Odds) + (1/Draw Odds) – 1
First, we shall convert each 1X2 market into a decimal chance of winning. This is what actually is inside each set of the brackets in the equation above: (1/Odds).
For Hull City, which is the home team, the decimal probability is (1/3.41) = 0.293 (this is actually a 29.3 % chance of winning). On the other hand, the draw shall be (1/3.19) which equals 0.313 and Leicester is (1/2.39) which equals 0.418.
Horse Betting Odds Calculator
And second, we will substitute the numbers above as is shown in the formula in order to calculate the margin.
Margin = (0.293) + (0.418) + (0.313) – 1. Thus, the margin is 0.024 or 2.4 %.
Various types of bookmaker’s margins
The odds above are just an example of how one bookmaker offers odds. There are other bookmakers who will offer slightly different odds, and normally the profit may differ drastically. For example, what another bookmaker could offer for the same match is 3.10 for Hull City, 2.10 for Leicester and 2.90 for draw. The margin in this example turns out to be 10 % which is huge and more than five times more expensive than in the previous example. Thus, if a bettor placed $100 bet on Hull City to win on the 1X2 market, he would have won $31 more if playing with the bookmaker whose margin was 2.4 %.
The crucial thing in soccer betting is learning how to make more sophisticated decisions. Thus bettors should first educate themselves and then place bets. This includes checking other margins before making the final choice and placing the final bet. They should always look for bookmakers with risk management model which are in a position to offer better value than the rest.
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