Betting Odds On Oscars
The 91st Academy Awards are live from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California on Sunday, February 24 and will air live on ABC. The most prestigious award of the night is Best Picture and betting odds have been released for those among us who want to turn their award predictions into profit. Oscars Betting At New Jersey Online Sportsbooks New Jersey broke new ground in 2019 when it became the first US market with regulated sportsbooks to accept bets on the Oscars. Now, the Oscars are less than a month away and New Jersey is at the forefront of what could be a growing number of US markets taking Academy Awards action.
The Golden Globes used to be a great indicator of who will win the Oscars, but in recent years, the two groups are increasingly not on the same page. Rather than monitor the Globe winners, follow which films and people win the various awards for their respective guilds.
When it comes to Oscar voting, members of the Academy only vote in categories they work in. The editors are the only ones who vote for Best Editing, for example. The only category everyone votes for is Best Picture. The best way to figure out which film editors prefer, you need look no further than the American Cinema Editors awards.
Introduction
Oscar's Grind is a popular betting system. It is generally played on even money bets with a specified winning goal. Like most betting system, it usually achieves this goal, but at the expense of a large loss when it doesn't. Like every betting system, it can not pass the test of time and will eventually show a net loss.
Unlike most betting systems, like the Martingale, Labouchere or Fibonacci, the player will press his bets after winning, as opposed to losing. It also does not escalate the bet size as fast as these other systems, making it more of a 'grind' to achieve the winning goal. This causes the chances of reaching the winning goal to be less than more aggressive systems, but also allows the player to play longer and at a smaller average bet.
Overall, Oscar's Grind will tend to win in a streaky game and do badly in a choppy game.
Rules
The following is how to play Oscar's Grind on even money bets.
- The player will define his winning goal and bankroll.
- The player shall define his 'unit size' equal to his winning goal.
- The player makes a one-unit bet.
- If the player ties, then he repeats the same bet.
- Otherwise, if the last bet results is a win and the player has achieved his winning goal, then he walks away happy.
- Otherwise, if the player wins but has not achieved his winning goal, then he increases his bet size by one unit.*/**
- Otherwise, the player keeps the bet size the same.**
- The player bets.
- Go back to rule 4, until the player either achieves his winning goal or loses his entire bankroll.
*: If such an increase in bet would cause the player to overshoot his winning goal if he wins, then drop the bet size to whatever would result in achieving exactly the winning goal the next bet.
**: If the player does not have enough money to make the next bet, then drop the bet size to whatever money the player has left.
Betting Odds On Oscars Nomination
Simulation Results
To show what to expect from using Oscar's Grind, I wrote a simulation that followed the rules above, based on various bets and games. The simulation used a Mersenne Twister random number generator. For each simulation, the winning goal was ten units. I tested the simulation on the following bankrolls: 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 units.
The first simulation is based on betting the Player bet in baccarat. The simulation size is over 37 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the Player bet is 1.235%.
Baccarat Simulation — Player Bet
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.17% | 95.65% | 97.69% | 98.77% | 99.46% |
| Average number of bets | 4.736 | 5.697 | 6.230 | 6.646 | 7.067 |
| Average units bet | 6.626 | 10.609 | 14.557 | 19.609 | 28.650 |
| Expected win per session | -0.082 | -0.131 | -0.180 | -0.242 | -0.354 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.234% | 1.235% | 1.236% | 1.235% | 1.235% |
The first simulation is based on betting the pass bet in craps. The simulation size is over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the pass bet is 1.41%.
Betting Odds On Oscars 2020
Craps Simulation — Pass Bet
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.14% | 95.63% | 97.67% | 98.76% | 99.45% |
| Average number of bets | 4.289 | 5.161 | 5.645 | 6.024 | 6.409 |
| Average units bet | 6.001 | 9.616 | 13.205 | 17.804 | 26.051 |
| Expected win per session | -0.085 | -0.136 | -0.187 | -0.252 | -0.368 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.413% | 1.414% | 1.414% | 1.414% | 1.413% |
The next simulation is based on the don't pass bet in craps. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the house edge on the don't pass bet is 1.364%.
Craps Simulation — Don't Pass
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.14% | 95.64% | 97.68% | 98.76% | 99.46% |
| Average number of bets | 4.410 | 5.307 | 5.805 | 6.193 | 6.589 |
| Average units bet | 6.171 | 9.887 | 13.574 | 18.296 | 26.768 |
| Expected win per session | -0.084 | -0.135 | -0.185 | -0.250 | -0.365 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% |
The next simulation is based on any even money bet in single-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 1/37 = 2.703%.
Betting Odds On Oscars Last Night
Roulette Simulation — Single Zero
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 89.40% | 95.11% | 97.29% | 98.49% | 99.28% |
| Average number of bets | 4.381 | 5.327 | 5.871 | 6.314 | 6.789 |
| Average units bet | 6.156 | 10.059 | 14.074 | 19.418 | 29.545 |
| Expected win per session | -0.166 | -0.272 | -0.380 | -0.525 | -0.799 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 2.703% | 2.702% | 2.703% | 2.702% | 2.703% |
The next simulation is based on any even money bet in double-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 2/38 = 5.263%.
Roulette Simulation — Double Zero
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 87.81% | 93.93% | 96.39% | 97.81% | 98.81% |
| Average number of bets | 4.567 | 5.670 | 6.350 | 6.944 | 7.646 |
| Average units bet | 6.468 | 10.982 | 15.945 | 23.026 | 37.824 |
| Expected win per session | -0.340 | -0.578 | -0.839 | -1.212 | -1.991 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 5.263% | 5.264% | 5.262% | 5.264% | 5.264% |
Video
Here is my video on Oscar's Grind.
Internal Links
- The Truth about Betting Systems.
- Labouchere betting system.
- Fibonacci betting system.
- D'Alembert betting system.
- Martingale betting system.
- Keefer roulette system.
External Links
Betting Odds On Oscars Awards
Discussion about Oscar's Grind in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.
Written by: Michael Shackleford